USDJPY
US Dollar / Japanese YenTotal predictions
2
Hit rate
0%
0 hits, 1 misses, 0 partial
Pending
0
Bull / Bear
1 / 1
direction split
YouTubers covered
2
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Predictions (2)
Meet Kevin1 callBearish
Kevin argues the US Treasury's intervention to strengthen the yen (selling euro assets to buy yen) has already failed, with USD/JPY back above the 160 level that had been feared as a carry-trade unwind trigger. He believes yen interventions historically always reverse because they bandage rather than fix underlying fundamentals, implying continued yen weakness ahead.
Mark Spiegel1 callStrongly Bearish
The Bank of Japan has been printing ~20% of the monetary base per year for ~5 years. Japan's national debt is over 250% of GDP and interest on the debt is already over 9% of the budget at a 1% average rate. At 3% rates, debt service would consume ~28% of the budget — unsustainable. The BOJ will keep printing to cap rates and crash the yen in doing so. This is Mark's 'desert island' set-it-and-forget-it trade, on since late 2012 from ~79.