TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$500
“500 are completely in the cards this year.”@ 10:47 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishTesla is experiencing a narrative-driven uptrend after Q3 earnings confirmed Optimus Q1 2026 reveal and robo-taxi safety-driver removal by year-end, but the real hard catalyst is robo-taxi cash flow in May 2026.
Key arguments
- Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas said Tesla has effectively solved FSD, a major conviction boost for fund managers.
- Q3 earnings revealed a clear 6-9 month trajectory to robotics and autonomy with concrete milestones.
- Optimus commercial version reveal is confirmed for Q1 2026 with mass production to follow.
- Robo-taxi safety drivers will be removed partially by end of 2025, confirming prior expectations.
- The speaker is net long over 100% Tesla via shares and LEAPS calls for end-2026/early-2027.
- Robo-taxi could generate ~5% of Tesla's free cash flow at an annualized rate by May 2026, the real inflection point.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- No major hard catalysts exist before end-2025; the move is a sentiment shift, not a fundamental repricing.
- An early runup (e.g., to 600 by January) would create an air pocket and likely drop back.
- If the market corrects, Tesla will drop 2x the NASDAQ.
The call
- Date said
- Oct 28, 2025
- Timeframe
- end of 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $460.55
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $449.72
- Return
- -2.4%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $500. Price: $449.72.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $500. Price: $449.72.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Conditional on market running up 5%; acknowledges uncertainty.