TSLA bullish call by Jo Bhakdi

TSLABullunverifiable

“I am predicting or I did a model that shows that where the stock is right now is pretty massively undervalued if we truly get to that inflection point to roll out robo taxis at scale.”@ 0:55 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗

Thesis at the time

Strongly Bullish

Tesla is massively undervalued if it reaches the inflection point of deploying robotaxis at scale. The YouTuber models that 2,000 fully commercial robotaxis would generate 5% of Tesla's 2024 free cash flow, creating a forcing function for mainstream investors to reprice the stock. Each robotaxi would generate approximately $93,000 in annual margin, equivalent to selling 12 Model Y vehicles per year.

Key arguments

2,000 robotaxis would generate 5.23% of Tesla's 2024 free cash flow ($3.58 billion)
Each robotaxi generates ~$93,000 annual margin at $2/mile revenue and $0.50/mile costs
Business model is limitlessly scalable - could deploy 200,000+ robotaxis by 2027
Tesla pricing at $1.99/km (~$2.50/mile) is 30% cheaper than competitors while maintaining high margins
200,000 robotaxis would increase Tesla's free cash flow by 522% to $18.7 billion

Counter-arguments acknowledged

FSD technology could have hiccups or delays
Initial costs per mile could be higher than $0.50 with small fleet
Scaling timeline could be delayed beyond projected dates

Hedges and caveats (from the video)

Prediction made nearly a year ago with uncertain outcome
Contingent on achieving full commercial robotaxi deployment at scale
Relies on specific assumptions about robotaxi utilization (200 miles/day, 26 operational days/month)
Dependent on achieving $60,000+ net margin per robotaxi
Market repricing dependent on mainstream investor adoption of the thesis