LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$28.00
Said $2.80· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“I do feel that it can actually get between this S1 and the pivot probably closer to the pivot by the close of Friday most likely”@ 7:01 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedThe speaker previews a huge macro week that could drive volatility and sees Lucid's Q3 earnings as the real stock mover. Technically, Lucid is pointing to lower lows with Elliott Wave targets in the high $1s, but the speaker is cautiously optimistic that good macro data and a 25bp cut will bring Lucid to around the $2.80 pivot range by end of week. A move back into the $3s likely requires a strong earnings catalyst similar to Tesla's.
Key arguments
- Massive macro week: job openings, GDP, PCE, NFP — all capable of shaking Lucid via broad market moves
- Faisal Sultan speaking at Sustainable Transport in Saudi Arabia on Oct 28 — potential positive catalyst
- Lucid Q3 earnings (upcoming week after) is the key catalyst to push stock back toward $3+
- Shorts have been increasing and cost-to-borrow minimum is negative — broker paying people to short Lucid
- Fear and greed index at 59 (greed), appetite for risk supports growth stocks like Lucid
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Elliott Wave technicals point to lower lows, potentially hitting high $1 range
- Retail has been slowly selling since August 23rd peak
- Some individuals predicting Lucid at $33 by 2026 — dismissed as unrealistic
The call
- Date said
- Oct 27, 2024
- Deadline
- Nov 1, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $25.20
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $22
- Return
- -12.7%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $28. Price: $22.00.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $28. Price: $22.00.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.