LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$11
“From a bull standpoint, um kind of they feel like $11 is on the table. And that's something that they've been feeling for the last week, week and a half, is that $11 is on the table.”@ 5:13 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedThe speaker sees Lucid's end-of-March $3K discount on Air as smart inventory management ahead of earnings, since investors will scrutinize excess inventory reduction. However, the stock is stuck between the 10-day and 50-day moving averages with no institutional buying. Bears targeting $9-$9.50, bulls targeting $11. Breaking below 10-day MA could trigger a retest of $9.40-$9.50.
Key arguments
- Air $3K promotion smart for clearing inventory before earnings scrutiny
- Air demand has peaked per management — Gravity and mid-size are the future
- Only one secondary market transaction — a sell — shows no institutional interest
- Shorts returning 56K shares at 31.95% of float — slightly self-correcting
- LCID stuck between 10-day and 50-day moving averages — breakout direction key
- Bears targeting $9-$9.50; bulls targeting $11
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts returning is slightly bullish vs other growth stocks where shorts are increasing
- Options net premiums slightly positive — marginal bullish bias
- Bulls still see $11 as achievable if macro clears
The call
- Date said
- Mar 24, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $10.36
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $5.68
- Return
- -45.2%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $11. Price: $5.68.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $11. Price: $5.68.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.