TSLABullunverifiable
Curious Pejjy“I do think that once it does sore up the price of that is going to go up.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishThe creator is highly bullish on Tesla due to accelerating FSD Supervised approval momentum across Europe, citing safety data, expanding test mileage in 22 countries, and softening government resistance (e.g., Sweden). He believes an EU-wide approval vote on October 6th could boost FSD take rates, which he expects to positively impact Tesla's stock price.
Key arguments
- FSD Supervised is approved in 5 EU countries and used by over 70,000 customers, showing a 4.1x lower crash rate than manual driving.
- Tesla open-sourced key evidence used for Netherlands approval to remove bureaucratic excuses ahead of the October 6th EU-wide approval vote.
- 22 European countries have accumulated about 1 million cumulative FSD test miles, showing broad testing infrastructure across the continent.
- Sweden, previously anti-Tesla amid a unionization dispute, has reversed course and now intends to vote yes on FSD approval, with officials trialing the tech with senior citizens.
- Germany's Brandenburg state is in talks with Tesla about autonomous shuttles for rural transport, signaling further regulatory openness.
- He believes rising FSD take rates in Europe would drive Tesla's stock price higher.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- The EU could reject the FSD approval in October as a 'worst case scenario' due to bureaucracy, pushing the next approval opportunity to next year.
- Countries like Poland, Romania, Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece, and Portugal have not yet been touched by FSD testing.
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Regulatory approval is not guaranteed despite the October 6th EU vote
- Bureaucratic delays could further postpone European rollout
- Competition from other autonomous driving systems (Waymo) exists
- Host expresses strong personal opinion rather than objective analysis
The call
- Date said
- Sep 2, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $348.75
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Directional certainty ('is going to go up') is offset by the conditional framing ('once it does soar up') and hedge ('I do think'), with no specific price target or timeframe given.
Source
BIG Things Are BREWING In Europe With Tesla's FSD
Said on Sep 2, 2026Open on YouTube ↗