LCIDBullhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$24.50
Said $2.45· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“the next real point to watch for is that 245. And that is that 50-day moving average. historically a very big deal for Lucid.”@ 5:09 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLarge institutional money woke up to buy Lucid aggressively in the last 30 minutes of trading, pushing it up 3.95% with 85M shares traded. Shorts returning 1.28M shares and a short score of 75.55 signal growing squeeze potential. The speaker believes if Lucid releases surprise news, a 15–20% pop is possible, with the 50-day MA at $2.45 as the key target.
Key arguments
- Big institutional buying on the secondary market (two buys visible) signals genuine demand
- Shorts returning 1.28M shares shows they anticipate further upside
- Short score of 75.55 (via IBKR) indicates elevated squeeze potential
- Multiple influencers discussing Lucid squeeze — last time this happened it went up 15–20%
- Stochastic RSI oversold; momentum could carry to 50-day MA at $2.45
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Most volume remains algorithmic trading, not pure organic buying
- Shorts hold positions for ~69 days on average, meaning they won't exit quickly
The call
- Date said
- Jun 9, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $22.30
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $31.20
- Return
- +39.9%
- Notes
- Target ≥$24.5 reached on 2025-07-17. Price: $31.20. Return: +39.9%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$24.5 reached on 2025-07-17. Price: $31.20. Return: +39.9%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.