TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$5,000
“Nothing in this event changed my price target of $5,000 by 2030.”@ 4:42 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedShort-to-medium term Tesla will be range-bound due to lack of concrete Robotaxi/FSD/Optimus catalysts, but long-term the 5-year bet is reinforced with a $5,000 price target by 2030 driven by Optimus and FSD dominance.
Key arguments
- Event was fluffy with no hard catalysts for next 6-12 months; Wall Street took stock down over 5%.
- Robotaxi hardware timeline is irrelevant; FSD deployment is the gating factor.
- Optimus is a 20 trillion mid-term, effectively unlimited long-term opportunity.
- Competition (Waymo, Cruz, Figure One) is discounted; Chinese EVs blocked by tariffs.
- OEMs will go out of business or strike deals with Tesla before 2030.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Elon has promised FSD/robotaxi since 2016 and been wrong repeatedly.
- Stock could go nowhere until 2027 with no catalyst.
- Short-term and midterm are frustrating on a stock price level.
The call
- Date said
- Oct 11, 2024
- Timeframe
- by 2030
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Price at prediction
- $217.80
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$4,621.10 below target
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Explicitly called his standing price target, stated with conviction and reaffirmed after the event.