TSLABearunverifiable
Jo Bhakdi“there is a huge potential chance I think it's 30 to 50% that this happens in January some major major drop.”@ 18:55 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishA Tesla teleoperation job posting signals the robotaxi remote-operator team is being built, making a Q3 2025 pilot launch realistic and setting up a hard-catalyst repricing.
Key arguments
- New C++ teleoperation job posting proves Tesla is building the remote operator infrastructure needed for commercial robotaxi pilots.
- Historical six-month ramp implies a Q3 2025 pilot launch in Austin.
- Pilot launch would be the hard catalyst forcing Wall Street to price in ~50% of robotaxi fair value.
- Optimus will follow a three-wave Wall Street repricing (demo, first sales, full scaling).
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- 30-50% probability of a major January market drop dragging Tesla down ~30%.
- Market looks frothy and is due for a 10-20% pullback in Q1.
- Timing of pilot could slip to Q4 if ramp is slower.
The call
- Date said
- Dec 5, 2024
- Timeframe
- January 2025
- Deadline
- Jan 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $369.49
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Probabilistic warning (30-50%), not an outright call; no explicit price target.