TSLABullpending
Curious PejjyTarget Price
$1,000
“I do see a path where it can go to a,000 or 1500 realistically. If Elon can demo a robot that can do real work in real life and have a date for pre-order is game freaking over.”@ 0:07 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla is positioned for explosive growth in 2026 as the 'golden year' when revenue from robotaxis and FSD will show up in financials. The company is vertically integrating across chips, energy, robotics and AI, with Optimus humanoid robots representing the biggest long-term opportunity.
Key arguments
- 2026 will be the 'golden year of growth' when robotaxi revenue appears in balance sheet
- FSD technology is nearly ready for mainstream deployment with 99.5% reliability
- Cyber Cab production ramping in Q2 2026 will be major catalyst
- Optimus robot pre-orders could trigger massive valuation expansion to $1000-1500
- Vertical integration strategy including potential chip manufacturing reduces bottlenecks
- Elon's compensation package approval secures leadership through 2030
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Government regulation could slow FSD rollout
- Chip supply constraints may limit production scaling
- FSD still has edge cases like pothole avoidance to solve
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Not financial advice (stated twice in transcript)
- Price targets are speculative and dependent on execution of future milestones
- Robot demo and pre-order dates are uncertain
- Chip supply constraints could impact growth trajectory
- Stock performance dependent on Elon's continued involvement and decisions
The call
- Date said
- Dec 19, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $481.20
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$621.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Conditional prediction dependent on Optimus robot demonstration, but shows strong conviction when condition is met