LCIDBearpending
Parkev Tatevosian, CFATarget Price
$7.28
“I calculated a fair value for this stock at $7.28 and the current market price at 13.45 is still well above the intrinsic value per share.”@ 7:14 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishLCID is down 35% in the last month and 55% YTD, and the recent $875M convertible senior note offering adds to dilution risk. Q3 losses of $828M against fewer than 30,000 annual vehicle sales, with lower-priced models at least a year away. Speaker's DCF fair value is $7.28 versus market at $13.45, and the stock is only interesting below $7.
Key arguments
- Down 35% in one month and 55% YTD in 2025
- $875M convertible senior note offering will dilute shareholders
- Q3 2025 losses of $828M against <30,000 annual vehicle sales
- Lower-priced models at least a year away
- Expiration of US EV tax credits pressures demand
- DCF fair value $7.28 vs current market price $13.45
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Cars are beautiful and best EVs on the road
- Gravity SUV ramp could limit losses if widespread adoption
The call
- Date said
- Nov 30, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $12.58
- Current price (live)
- $4.32✓ target met
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker is a CFA with a long track record on this stock and an explicit DCF-derived fair value that he owns, with a clear action threshold ($7) for buying.