LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$44
Said $4.40· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“where do you guys see things going do you think it is going to potentially break above that key 440 mark because that seems to be a very big struggle for Lucid so definitely watch for this R2 to be kind of that Make It or Break It point because if it does and is able to get above this R2 then yeah in theory Lucid should really move up significantly from here”@ 10:20 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe speaker constructs a detailed bull case: a 50bp Fed rate cut is 50% likely and would benefit growth stocks significantly; short interest at 28.43% is elevated but declining from recent highs; a monthly options chain with 15K calls at $4, $4.50, and $5 could create a gamma squeeze if the stock rallies; technical breakout above $4.40 resistance would be significant. Gravity showcase at studios continues and an October reveal remains likely based on historical pattern.
Key arguments
- 50% likelihood of 50bp Fed rate cut on September 18th - major catalyst for growth stocks
- Short interest at 28.43% - elevated but below recent highs, potential squeeze candidate
- Monthly options chain: 15K calls at $4, 14K at $4.50, 15K at $5 = gamma squeeze potential
- Each strike level = ~1.5M shares market makers would need to cover
- Gravity being showcased at studios signals October reveal likely
- Technical: stock above 50-day MA with bullish stochastic deviation
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If only 25bp cut comes, market likely disappointed and LCID could pull back
- Retail investors inexplicably selling despite positive macro backdrop
The call
- Date said
- Sep 14, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $39.40
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $25.80
- Return
- -34.5%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $44. Price: $25.80.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $44. Price: $25.80.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.