LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price
$16
“So, that would put it roughly around that 17 to $16 range for the most part.”@ 11:25 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishLucid is struggling as Tesla earnings weigh on the EV sector and shorts return 3M shares while institutions sell. Management has failed to define a target audience and the reverse stock split was a mistake. The speaker sees more downside ahead given the 50-day moving average breakdown and lack of catalysts.
Key arguments
- Tesla earnings suppressed Lucid significantly; institutions were selling heavily on secondary market
- Shorts returned 2.9M shares and represent ~37.2M total short shares (29.33% of float)
- Lucid broke below 50-day moving average, historically signaling 20-30% further pullback
- Management has no idea who their target audience is and wasted money on influencer marketing
- The reverse stock split failed to attract institutional buyers as intended
- Retail investor questions at upcoming earnings are low quality, signaling poor shareholder base
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Neuro co-founder picked up a Gravity, confirming the Lucid-Neuro-Uber robotaxi partnership is progressing
The call
- Date said
- Oct 24, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $18.48
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $15.17
- Return
- +17.9%
- Notes
- Target ≤$16 reached on 2025-11-13. Price: $15.17. Return: +17.9%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$16 reached on 2025-11-13. Price: $15.17. Return: +17.9%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.