TSLABullhit
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$400
“my strategic prediction here is that we have a short-term Target of 400”@ 12:15 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla is deeply undervalued at $180 with a strong floor at $160. Short-term target is $255-280 around the August 8 robotaxi event, $400 within 12-18 months as it retakes 2021 highs, and $2,000 by 2026-2027. The stock trades at 6x P/S while comparable AI companies (Nvidia 35x, Microsoft 12.5x) trade much higher.
Key arguments
- Tesla's price-to-sales ratio of 6.06 is extremely low vs Nvidia 35, Microsoft 12.5, Meta 7.85
- Comparables (Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia) have all exceeded 2021 highs while Tesla at $180 is far below $400 high
- Bullish catalysts: June 13 shareholder meeting, Q2 earnings July 17, August 8 robotaxi unveil
- Analyst targets: Dan Ives ~$300 (may increase to $315-325), ARK Invest $2,000, Ron Baron has $4B position expecting 10x
- Macro environment stabilizing: Fed stable, recession risk low, election outcome likely Trump (de-escalation)
- Taiwan/China tail risk acknowledged but diplomatically managed
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- China Taiwan invasion would be a tail risk disaster for all AI stocks due to TSMC
- If Biden stays/wins, geopolitical risk increases
- Q1 earnings were very bad before the bounce
The call
- Date said
- May 15, 2024
- Timeframe
- 12 to 18 months
- Deadline
- Nov 15, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $173.99
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $400.99
- Return
- +130.5%
- Notes
- Target ≥$400 reached on 2024-12-10. Price: $400.99. Return: +130.5%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$400 reached on 2024-12-10. Price: $400.99. Return: +130.5%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Stated as 'strategic prediction' with high conviction and 'pretty safe bet'