TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$1,100
“The target price of end of next year of $1,100 per share.”@ 2:53 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla's fair value end-of-2025 is 654 and 1100 end-of-2026 with 82% of value coming from future robotaxi (35%) and Optimus (47%) cash flows, and the moat is cost-leading Cyber Cab hardware plus an Optimus IP App Store, not AI itself.
Key arguments
- Fair future value share price end-2025 modeled at 654: 226 robotaxi + 310 Optimus + 119 core EV/energy
- End-2026 target is 1100 if timelines hold
- AI technology moat will commoditize by 2028 for robotaxi and 2030 for humanoid robots via open-source models
- Real robotaxi moat is Cyber Cab hardware cost/performance plus install base scale - need millions by 2028 to lock in
- Optimus moat is an 'App Store of Optimus' IP-capture framework that specialized manufacturers license their training into
- Trust moat shuts out Chinese competitors from the Optimus IP play
- Competition is good because it prevents Tesla decadence and forces Elon to execute timelines
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Waymo/Chinese competitors like the Wayve demo show real self-driving competition exists
- Humanoid robot Chinese competitors are legitimate and growing
- If Tesla only scales to 10,000 robotaxis by 2028 they are toasted
- One-year delay shifts price targets out one year
The call
- Date said
- Mar 12, 2025
- Timeframe
- end of next year
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $248.09
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$721.10 below target
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Stated explicitly as the model-derived end-2026 target, same framework as the 2025 target.