LCIDNeutralhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$37.90
Said $3.79· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“335 kind of the bare case 379 somewhat the bull case”@ 9:44 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedThe speaker presents a cautiously mixed outlook: Friday was day one below the 50-day MA (needs two consecutive days to confirm downtrend), Elliott Wave targeting ~$3 if breakdown is confirmed, but a Gravity announcement could reverse everything. Quarter-end rebalancing could add abnormal buying/selling. Shorts have been relentless (3.45M added Friday) with a clear agenda, but with oversold conditions, any good news could attract value investors.
Key arguments
- Friday was day one below 50-day MA - Monday confirmation critical
- If 50-day MA breaks: could see sub-$3 or ~$3 range
- Quarter-end rebalancing (end of Q3) could force institutional purchases
- Lucid outperformed S&P over 1 month (up 8.17% vs 1.8%) - may need selling to rebalance
- Gravity announcement is the only catalyst that could push to $4+ range
- 51.4% likelihood of 50bp November cut supports broader equity rotation
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Large entities have been consistently selling Lucid
- Retail investors also selling out
The call
- Date said
- Sep 22, 2024
- Deadline
- Sep 27, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $34.60
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $35.90
- Return
- +3.8%
- Notes
- Ceiling $37.9 held through deadline. Final price: $35.90 (+3.8% vs ref).
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Ceiling $37.9 held through deadline. Final price: $35.90 (+3.8% vs ref).
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.