TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$440
“I was betting on Tesla staying above 440 after earnings by end of tomorrow, end of Friday.”@ 13:15 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla demonstrated exceptional execution with automotive margins increasing from 15.4% to 17.9% despite intense competition, while achieving 1.1 million FSD subscribers and maintaining over 20% gross margins. The company is positioned as the only viable robotaxi player with superior operational infrastructure and is betting heavily on unsupervised FSD launch in April 2026.
Key arguments
- Tesla increased automotive margins sequentially from 15.4% to 17.9% while competitors struggle
- 1.1 million FSD subscribers generating approximately $800 million in potential annual cash flow
- Over 20% total company gross margins on $100+ billion revenue
- Only company with infrastructure capable of scaling robotaxi at needed rate
- FSD has been effectively solved as of December 2025
- Massive $20 billion CapEx investment showing commitment to future growth
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Optimus production likely delayed until end of 2027 rather than end of 2026
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Acknowledges uncertainty in FSD adoption timeline and penetration rates
- Robotaxi market adoption dependent on regulatory approval and technological maturity
- Competitive landscape could shift with other manufacturers entering autonomous vehicle space
- FSD revenue projections based on assumptions about future adoption rates
The call
- Date said
- Jan 29, 2026
- Timeframe
- by end of Friday
- Price at prediction
- $416.56
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $372.80
- Return
- -10.5%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $440. Price: $372.80.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $440. Price: $372.80.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker made actual trades betting on this outcome with short puts at multiple strike prices