LCIDBearmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$9.26
“based on Amazon's earnings, which it looks like they kind of did flop a little bit... this 926 most likely it's going to be hit tomorrow.”
Thesis at the time
BearishLucid fell 8.19% to within $0.03 of its all-time low of $9.50, driven by macro fears including weak labor data, AI bubble concerns from Google, and Fed uncertainty. Amazon's after-hours miss suggests tomorrow will see a new all-time low with the $9.26 support level targeted. Eric Bach sold 273K shares — likely related to defamation lawsuit settlement. The speaker identifies multiple converging negative catalysts (5-6 simultaneous market stressors) as snowballing into real fear.
Key arguments
- Stock touched $9.51, within $0.03 of all-time low ($9.50) set Jan 20
- Multiple macro fear factors converging — labor data, AI bubble, Fed uncertainty, geopolitics
- Amazon's AH earnings miss signals another red day Friday
- Bear targets: $9.26 next strong support, then $8.24 if that fails
- Eric Bach insider sale of 273K shares likely tied to defamation lawsuit conclusion
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts only increased 12K shares — not aggressively doubling down
- Stochastic RSI at 53 (neutral) gives room for recovery
The call
- Date said
- Feb 5, 2026
- Deadline
- Feb 6, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $9.53
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $10.86
- Return
- -14.0%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $9.26. Price: $10.86.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $9.26. Price: $10.86.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.