LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$40
Said $4· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“then May the 9th, you do have a consensus for it to be roughly around that $4 range so far”@ 6:55 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishSpeaker highlights that shorts added roughly 75-80M shares via dark pool between March 31 and April 15 specifically to prevent Lucid from closing above the 50-day MA, which the speaker views as a sign of fear rather than fundamental weakness. A new 2x leveraged long ETF (LCDL) for Lucid was launched, which is characterized as a positive signal of growing market interest. Options consensus points to ~$3 this week and ~$4 around the May 6 earnings.
Key arguments
- Shorts increased ~75-80M shares via dark pool during March 31 – April 15, suppressing Lucid artificially
- Lucid successfully closed above 50-day MA, typically signaling 30-40% upside run historically
- Launch of Granite Shares 2x long Lucid ETF shows increasing institutional/retail interest
- Speaker notes no 2x leveraged-long ETF stock has ever gone bankrupt, implicitly countering bankruptcy risk argument
- Options consensus around ~$3 this week and ~$4 around earnings (May 9)
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at -35.8 vs -15 forecast, causing broader market drag
- Supply-chain issues still constraining Gravity ramp-up
The call
- Date said
- Apr 28, 2025
- Deadline
- May 9, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $25.30
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $25.10
- Return
- -0.8%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $40. Price: $25.10.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $40. Price: $25.10.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.