LCIDBullunverifiable
Lucid City“I do agree that Lucid is going to really kick ass in second half of 2025 and also 2026”@ 7:16 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedGross profit margins are deteriorating as cost of revenue rises faster than revenue, and shares outstanding has grown from 2.31B to 3.05B in five quarters due to ongoing dilution. The speaker expects ~$7 billion more in dilution before the midsize launch, possibly continuing until 2027–2028, but remains bullish on Lucid's second half of 2025 and 2026 performance.
Key arguments
- Gross profit margins are worsening, partly due to tariff impacts on Canada/Mexico supply chain
- Shares outstanding will continue rising to fund operations until midsize ramp-up
- Speaker estimates ~$7B more dilution needed before midsize launch
- Q2 2025 earnings will be key given tariff headwinds on margins
- Lucid is improving quarter-over-quarter, just slowly
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Tesla had similarly poor margins early on and took until 2018–2019 to improve
- Lucid did localize supply agreements in Q4 which contributed to some margin improvement
The call
- Date said
- Jun 19, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $21.90
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.