LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$35
Said $3.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“in my opinion I think Lucid initially early on is going to have a run at that 350 really fail consolidate but near the tail end of the week possibly... might be that kind of push higher and break above that 350 mark so I am rather optimistic on Lucid at least in the short term”@ 7:39 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedA quiet macro week means Lucid's near-term direction depends primarily on technicals and earnings from select companies. Riyadh Season extended their Lucid partnership for another year — positive marketing exposure. The $3.50 mark is both the 50-day moving average and a strong options wall, making it the key pivot. Speaker anticipates an initial failed run at $3.50 early in the week, but thinks Lucid can break above it toward week end (possibly on retail sales data or Netflix earnings). Q3 earnings are 2-3 weeks out.
Key arguments
- Riyadh Season extended Lucid partnership another year — strong Saudi market marketing exposure
- Elliot Wave: if Lucid breaks above $3.76, target is $4.29-$4.49; if below, $2.60-$2.79 range
- Fear and greed index in greed territory — people's appetite for risk supports a breakout
- Retail investors increased position 8.21% in Q3 per 13F; institutions down 3.26%
- One analyst removed their very bearish estimate — raised consensus revenue estimate to $182M
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts have been increasing almost every day for the past 6-7 days
- Options wall at $3.50 with 14K+ open interest — shorts and market makers have financial interest in keeping Lucid below $3.50
- Friday showed a lot of selling by big money — no strong buying pressure
The call
- Date said
- Oct 13, 2024
- Deadline
- Oct 18, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $33.30
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $26.30
- Return
- -21.0%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $35. Price: $26.30.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $35. Price: $26.30.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.