LCIDBullhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$25
Said $2.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“it's either going to be high ones or possibly 250 or in excess of 250 so anything is possible”@ 6:03 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedPIF bought 374M shares plus 21.4M additional to maintain their 58.8% stake, which is algorithmically positive and driving a 3% gain. However, big money is selling ($1.45M and $500K transactions), shorts are increasing 3.76M shares, and CEO Peter Rawlinson has never purchased Lucid shares with his own money — a major red flag per the speaker.
Key arguments
- PIF bought 374M + 21.4M additional shares to maintain 58.8% ownership — signaling commitment
- Algorithmic trading driving price up despite big money selling
- Shorts increasing 3.76M shares — calling the rally unjustified
- CEO Peter Rawlinson has never purchased shares with personal funds — massive red flag
- Options consensus showing $3.50+ bull case for earnings week
- Elliott Wave projecting high $1 range OR $2.50+ post-earnings — binary outcome
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- PIF using personal funds (not company money) to maintain ownership is genuinely bullish signal
- Implied earnings move of 15.73% creates significant upside potential
The call
- Date said
- Nov 4, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $22.40
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $25.50
- Return
- +13.8%
- Notes
- Target ≥$25 reached on 2024-12-09. Price: $25.50. Return: +13.8%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$25 reached on 2024-12-09. Price: $25.50. Return: +13.8%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.