METABullpending
Meet KevinTarget Price
$1,300
“I believe that the stock has a fair value of around $1,300.”
Thesis at the time
BullishKevin argues Meta is undervalued and sitting in a penalty box due to lawsuit overhang and its status as the only hyperscaler not monetizing excess compute, but sees settlement of state lawsuits and potential compute monetization as catalysts. He personally believes the stock's fair value is around $1,300, well above its current trading level, while acknowledging rising costs and negative return on invested capital as risks.
Key arguments
- Meta is the only major hyperscaler not renting out excess compute despite having ~6-7 gigawatts of capacity, which analysts (Goldman, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, New Street) argue could unlock $15-65B+ in incremental revenue
- Settlement of major state lawsuits (previously threatening up to $1.4T in claimed damages) removes a large overhang on the stock
- New AI monetization products like 'business in a box', agentic commerce, and WhatsApp subscription/token pricing could drive multi-year revenue growth
- Meta stock has underperformed Amazon and Apple significantly over the past year and year-to-date
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Return on invested capital is currently negative (~-2.2%) without compute monetization
- Cost of goods sold rose 33% and R&D/SG&A spending nearly doubled, weakening apparent pricing power
- No buybacks or dividends currently, and free cash flow yield (~2%) is much lower than peers like Salesforce
- Balance sheet carries meaningful long-term debt and lease obligations
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Acknowledges uncertainty about future Fed policy outcomes
- Notes that market expectations could change with new economic data
- Discusses probability-based rate hike scenarios rather than certainties
- Expresses hope for improving economic data between now and December
The call
- Date said
- Aug 28, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $571.10
- Current price (live)
- $736.60$563.41 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Kevin states this as his personal belief and discloses he owns the stock (personal stake strengthens conviction), but there is no timeframe or strong certainty language like 'will' attached to the target.
Source
Hardware AI Stocks Reverse POST Jackson Hole
Said on Aug 28, 2026Open on YouTube ↗