PLTRBullpending
Tom NashTarget Price
$367
“We're talking about $367 to hit 1 trillion. $367 for this year, the way it's going right now.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTom Nash argues Palantir's latest earnings (93% revenue growth, expanding commercial and government deals, rule of 40 at 155) show the company's true potential is even bigger than his long-standing $1 trillion market cap thesis. He believes the stock, despite a 'expensive' valuation on trading and forward PE, remains undervalued relative to its growth trajectory and that hitting $1 trillion is actually a conservative outcome if growth doesn't decelerate.
Key arguments
- Revenue grew 93% to $1.94B with adjusted EPS of $0.41 beating estimates by 17%.
- US commercial revenue up 150% and US government revenue up 90%, both accelerating.
- Rule of 40 score of 155 and operating margin of 62% are exceptional.
- Reverse-engineering the $1T market cap shows it requires revenue growth deceleration, not acceleration, making the thesis conservative.
- High switching costs create a 'Hotel California' dynamic where customers rarely leave once onboarded.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Trading PE of 138 and forward PE of 77 with a PEG of 1.5 make the stock expensive.
- Key-man risk around CEO Alex Karp is significant.
- Commercial or government growth could slow down, undermining the bull case.
- The stock is highly volatile and will not move up in a straight line.
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Nothing in this video constitutes tax, legal, financial and/or investment advice
- Explicitly warns against buying on FOMO or pure excitement
- Acknowledges stock is expensive with trading PE of 138 and forward PE of 77
- Cautions that 'there's way more chaos ahead than you think'
- Emphasizes need for long-term conviction and patience before investing
- Warns stock is down year-to-date and 6 months despite strong fundamentals
- Advises building a thesis rather than buying based on recent performance
The call
- Date said
- Aug 4, 2026
- Timeframe
- this year
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Current price (live)
- $184.99$182.01 below target
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker frames this as a conservative, non-risky assumption based on current growth trends continuing, without hedging language, and reiterates conviction from a 2022 call.
Source
If you are a PALANTIR shareholder….GET READY
Said on Aug 4, 2026Open on YouTube ↗