LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$250
Said $25· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“if it's able to successfully close above that, then yeah, 250 in the short term could very much come to fruition”@ 5:20 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid up 1.1% and breaking above the ALMA for three consecutive days on institutional buying (multiple large darkpool buys including $1.01M) and rate cut optimism (95.9% probability of 25 bps Sept 17). Tomorrow's Gravity variant unveil is a near-term catalyst. The key next level is the 50-day MA at $2.35—if cleared, the speaker sees $2.50 as achievable in the short term. Stochastic RSI is very oversold providing additional upside potential.
Key arguments
- ALMA broken to the upside for three consecutive days—consolidation may be over
- Institutional buying confirmed: multiple darkpool transactions including $1.01M buy
- Shorts returning 3.9M shares (from peak of 8M earlier) adding buy pressure
- Gravity variant unveil tomorrow—could provide concrete catalyst (price, availability)
- 95.9% probability of 25 bps cut on Sept 17; some chance of 50 bps
- Key level: $2.35 (50-day MA)—shorts 'willing to die on' that line
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Short interest still at 32.14% (403M shares) remains a headwind
- Unveil needs concrete specs/pricing to be truly impactful
The call
- Date said
- Aug 13, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $23.40
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $16.99
- Return
- -27.4%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $250. Price: $16.99.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $250. Price: $16.99.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.