LCIDBullunverifiable
Lucid City“I still anticipate it to probably be in 2027, most likely mid to late. If not, and if things go not really according to plan, then maybe even 2028.”@ 4:34 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Bullish13F filings reveal significant institutional buying in Q1 with Vanguard adding 26.17M shares, UBS 23.85M, Millennium 19.42M, and BlackRock 5.38M. Tesla is losing market share — confirmed by California data and delayed cheaper Model Y production — creating a clear opportunity for Lucid. The Nikola facility acquisition is seen as accelerating the midsize timeline. Speaker anticipates profitability in mid-to-late 2027.
Key arguments
- Vanguard, UBS, Millennium, BlackRock all added large positions in Q1 — institutional smart money is buying
- Tesla delaying cheaper Model Y and losing California market share opens a window for Lucid
- Nikola facility acquisition could pull midsize timeline forward from late 2026
- Short interest of 23.13% vs 7.69% in 2021 shows manipulation suppressing the stock
- Once Lucid reaches profitability (~2027), stock price should align with fundamentals
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- PIF did not increase its position in Q1 — first time noted, possibly Q2 activity instead
- Profitability still expected to be 2027, possibly 2028 — long wait
The call
- Date said
- Apr 19, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2027
- Price at prediction
- $23.20
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.