TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$1,000
“In my opinion, multiple tens of thousands would drive the stock above 1,000, not 145.”@ 9:48 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishTesla is fundamentally a technology leader in full self-driving and robotaxi deployment, not just an auto company. The speaker believes FSD and robotaxi will launch this year and start scaling commercial operations into tens of thousands of deployed vehicles, which could drive the stock above $1,000.
Key arguments
- Tesla is the most profitable automaker in the world by margin
- Uncontested leader in full self-driving technology
- Robotaxi deployment could generate enormous revenue - 6 million robotaxis would beat Nvidia's free cash flow
- Regulatory approval is not a significant hurdle for initial rollout
- Optimus humanoid robots provide additional upside for the 2030s
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Core auto business is deteriorating due to global auto crisis and Chinese competition
- 50,000 unsold inventory in last quarter is concerning
- Stock trades at 335x earnings multiple which is high for auto business
- Execution risk on FSD technology and robotaxi deployment
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Analyst Ryan Brinkman has poor historical track record (negative 1.60% average return, 50% success rate)
- Execution risk exists for Full Self-Driving technology and Optimus deployment
- Regulatory approval requirements for autonomous vehicles are debated
- 50,000 units of unsold inventory raises questions about delivery chain delays
- Tesla's core auto business valuation is acknowledged as high at 335x earnings multiple
- Optimus revenue streams delayed to next year with no public reveal date
The call
- Date said
- Apr 6, 2026
- Timeframe
- this year
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $352.82
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$621.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Conditional on FSD and robotaxi scaling to tens of thousands of vehicles, with speaker expressing continued belief this will happen