LCIDBearpartial
Lucid CityTarget Price
$19.50
“I do feel like we will actually be breaking below that $20 range... it might be kind of between there and that $20 range”@ 9:33 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishLucid closed below the 50-day moving average for the first time since September 23rd. Two consecutive closes below this level would historically signal a 20-30% pullback. The speaker expects high volatility from Fed speakers, Powell on Tuesday, China-US tensions, and earnings season. He personally expects Lucid to break below $20 and potentially reach the $17-$19.50 zone given the macro environment.
Key arguments
- First close below 50-day moving average since Sep 23; two consecutive closes signal bearish trend
- US-China tensions around rare earth minerals could escalate and hit Lucid (magnet supply issue in prior Q)
- Ray Dalio and others saying market is overvalued and due for pullback
- Lucid management seen as arrogant for not providing more updates/news during rally
- Options flow: bears targeting sub-$20; bulls expect recovery to $22+
- Short interest at 39.2M shares (30.9% of float); cost of borrow at 15.08%
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Algorithmic trading artificially pushed market down; could reverse quickly
- If Lucid puts out news or catalyst, willing sellers disappear above $22
The call
- Date said
- Oct 12, 2025
- Deadline
- Oct 18, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $21.39
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- partial
- Resolution price
- $19.63
- Return
- +8.2%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Moved 93% toward target $19.5. Price: $19.63.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Moved 93% toward target $19.5. Price: $19.63.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.