TSLABullunverifiable
Meet Kevin“I don't think is priced into the stock at this moment.”
Thesis at the time
BullishKevin believes the Tesla Semi's move toward production is an underappreciated catalyst that isn't yet priced into the stock, unlike Optimus which he believes already carries significant investor hope.
Key arguments
- Recent Tesla Semi production drops will lead investors to start underwriting the Semi as a business upshot
- Optimus already has a lot of hope priced into the stock, but the Semi does not
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Uncertain whether the five-year payback period will be attractive enough to drive mass adoption orders for the Semi
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Acknowledges potential bubbliness in valuations long-term
- References monitoring NScale IPO and Anthropic IPO as canaries in the coal mine
- Discusses valuation concerns despite bullish near-term outlook
- Past performance references (AMD called at 452, Meta called on August 28th) used to establish credibility rather than as new predictions
The call
- Date said
- Sep 21, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $364.27
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Directional bullish view on an unpriced catalyst but no specific price target or timeframe given, and adoption is uncertain per his own caveat.