TSLABullunverifiable
Brighter with Herbert“There will be tens of thousands probably manufacturing capacity by end of next year.”
Thesis at the time
BullishJo Bhakdi expects Tesla's Optimus robot program to reach a major commercial launch next year, driven by intense competitive pressure from Chinese robotics makers and Tesla's need to stay ahead. He believes manufacturing capacity could scale into the tens of thousands of units by the end of next year, though he acknowledges near-term execution will remain messy.
Key arguments
- Chinese competitors are shipping Optimus-like components in the thousands, forcing Tesla to accelerate
- Camera-based worker training for Optimus is already underway at multiple Gigafactories including Berlin
- Manufacturing capacity could reach tens of thousands of units by end of next year
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Optimus is 'incredibly messy' and likely to remain problematic for the next three years
- Robots outperforming humans at tasks is unlikely to happen next year
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Distinction noted between registered vehicles (476) and actively deployed vehicles in the wild (42 tracked)
- Lag acknowledged between registration and actual deployment
- Tracker limitations may undercount deployed vehicles
- Future catalysts are speculative (100 vehicle threshold mentioned as 'magical number')
- Volume production of AI5 chip targeted for 2027 (future date)
The call
- Date said
- Sep 22, 2026
- Timeframe
- by end of next year
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2027
- Price at prediction
- $375.30
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Fairly confident tone but hedged with 'probably'; concerns robot production volume, not a stock price target.
Source
Wait… Tesla Just Added HOW Many Robotaxis?
Said on Sep 22, 2026Open on YouTube ↗