TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$4,599
“4,599 that is my fair future value share price for 2028.”@ 12:48 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla's DCF fair value reaches $4,599 by 2028 as robotaxi and Optimus revenue streams dominate EBITDA by 2027, making traditional PE analysis meaningless. The core business becomes a rounding error by 2029.
Key arguments
- 100,000 robotaxis projected for 2026, 750,000 for 2027, 2M for 2028.
- 220 million global robotaxi install base by 2040.
- Optimus at $1,000/month as RaaS yields $12k annual margin per robot.
- Robotaxi becomes 33-50% of EBITDA by 2027; core becomes rounding error by 2029.
- Robotaxi launch June 12 is imminent catalyst.
- FSD will be commoditized from frontier models in 2028 but only Tesla has the fleet and infrastructure.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Demand projections (robotaxi and Optimus unit counts) are the one aggressive input.
- If stock exceeds these fair values too quickly, pullbacks are likely.
- Gary Black and conventional analysts dismiss this using PE analysis.
The call
- Date said
- May 30, 2025
- Timeframe
- 2028 fair share price
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2028
- Price at prediction
- $346.46
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$4,220.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Explicit DCF target with stated assumptions; Bhakdi openly caveats it is fair value not expected price.