TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$654
“The future fair value share price of Tesla end of 2025 I'm projecting at $654.”@ 1:23 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla's fair value end-of-2025 is 654 and 1100 end-of-2026 with 82% of value coming from future robotaxi (35%) and Optimus (47%) cash flows, and the moat is cost-leading Cyber Cab hardware plus an Optimus IP App Store, not AI itself.
Key arguments
- Fair future value share price end-2025 modeled at 654: 226 robotaxi + 310 Optimus + 119 core EV/energy
- End-2026 target is 1100 if timelines hold
- AI technology moat will commoditize by 2028 for robotaxi and 2030 for humanoid robots via open-source models
- Real robotaxi moat is Cyber Cab hardware cost/performance plus install base scale - need millions by 2028 to lock in
- Optimus moat is an 'App Store of Optimus' IP-capture framework that specialized manufacturers license their training into
- Trust moat shuts out Chinese competitors from the Optimus IP play
- Competition is good because it prevents Tesla decadence and forces Elon to execute timelines
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Waymo/Chinese competitors like the Wayve demo show real self-driving competition exists
- Humanoid robot Chinese competitors are legitimate and growing
- If Tesla only scales to 10,000 robotaxis by 2028 they are toasted
- One-year delay shifts price targets out one year
The call
- Date said
- Mar 12, 2025
- Timeframe
- end of 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $248.09
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $449.72
- Return
- +81.3%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 50% progress toward target $654. Price: $449.72.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 50% progress toward target $654. Price: $449.72.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Explicit model-derived fair value target with specific breakdown (226 robotaxi + 310 Optimus + 119 core).