LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price
$6.47
“7.73, it really needs to get above that ASAP or by business day, I'd say tomorrow. If not, then you're going to be seeing 6.47 being the next strong support.”@ 9:13 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishThe speaker says LCID is technically falling off a cliff with hedge funds rotating out, shorts adding 5M shares, and no institution willing to buy the dip. The convertible preferred stock structure gives the PIF a win-win regardless of price direction. The speaker personally would not buy more LCID below $15 without clear operational improvement.
Key arguments
- Shorts increased 5.1M shares intraday, bringing price down with no institutional buyer resistance
- 32.7% of free float (43.8M shares) shorted
- Bank of America issued a sell rating despite administering Lucid's own $300M offering
- PIF's convertible preferred stock gives them a win-win, not a true vote of confidence
- New CEO compensation package seen as marginal improvement but market not reacting positively
- Bears targeting $7.00-$7.50, bulls only see $8.00 as support
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Stochastic RSI is fairly oversold, suggesting eventual bounce
- New CEO could change Lucid's direction
The call
- Date said
- Apr 16, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $7.70
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $6.25
- Return
- +18.8%
- Notes
- Target ≤$6.47 reached on 2026-04-25. Price: $6.25. Return: +18.8%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$6.47 reached on 2026-04-25. Price: $6.25. Return: +18.8%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.