TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$500
“if the Iran one finally stops... that would unlock a rally in the NASDAQ and in the MAX 7. And that could drive Tesla back to all-time highs, I think, even without much happening as long as we see some deployments.”@ 11:36 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishThe YouTuber believes Tesla's robotaxi deployment will be accelerated by US government support, with Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy prioritizing autonomous vehicle development as a national security issue. He expects the Cybercab production ramp to trigger a major stock repricing when Tesla reaches thousands of units deployed.
Key arguments
- US government views autonomous vehicles as national security priority to compete with China
- Secretary Duffy is actively working to remove regulatory barriers like steering wheel requirements
- Tesla's Cybercab has safety approvals that competitors like Waymo lack
- Cybercab scaling into thousands of units will trigger stock repricing
- Current regulations in Texas, Arizona, and California already allow massive deployment
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Potential delays if Self-Drive Act doesn't pass before new Congress
- Political uncertainty around midterm elections
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Uncertainty about Congressional composition and political shifts could delay federal rulemaking
- Regulatory approval timeline remains uncertain despite government prioritization
- Past relationship tensions between Elon Musk and Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy could affect policy outcomes
- Prediction contingent on Cybercab production ramp and unsupervised FSD launch timing
The call
- Date said
- Mar 18, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $392.78
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$121.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Hedged with 'I think' and conditional on external factors