TSLABullunverifiable
Curious Pejjy“I believe Optimus is going to be something beyond 2035 for it to be recognizing revenue.”
Thesis at the time
MixedThe speakers debate whether Elon Musk is intentionally slowing Tesla's robotaxi and FSD rollout, concluding it's more about technical readiness than sandbagging. They acknowledge investor frustration over years of flat stock price and missed timelines, but remain personally bullish long-term, citing robotaxi expansion and Optimus factory construction as evidence of real progress.
Key arguments
- FSD/robotaxi delays are due to genuine technical readiness issues, not intentional sandbagging
- Elon's 50% US coverage comment likely referred to availability, not full operational deployment, and is now being realized via Cybercab rollout across states
- Optimus factory construction in Giga Texas and hiring signal real commercialization progress even without public demos
- Elon's timelines should be taken with a grain of salt as motivational rather than literal deadlines
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Stock has been flat for 5 years, causing investor anger and frustration
- Q2 2026 earnings call was seen as depressing compared to SpaceX's
- Elon has a history of missing self-imposed deadlines by months or years
- Optimus has 'gone completely dark' with no prototypes shown recently
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Host acknowledges Elon's public statements should be taken 'with a grain of salt' and timelines are often missed
- Emphasis on looking at 'actual reality' of production rather than promised timelines
- Recognition that long-term Tesla investors have different perspectives than those frustrated by 5-year flat stock performance
- Acknowledgment of investor anger and frustration over repeated delays in FSD and robotaxi deployment
The call
- Date said
- Aug 27, 2026
- Timeframe
- beyond 2035
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Clear long-term directional belief in Optimus eventually generating revenue, but no price target and inherent uncertainty in far-out timeline.
Source
Is Elon Musk "Sandbagging" Tesla Stock?
Said on Aug 27, 2026Open on YouTube ↗