SPX bullish call by Michael Tyler

SPXBullunverifiable

“You want to be focused on what happens after the midterms, this 9 to 10 month rally that you tend to see.”

Thesis at the time

Bullish

He expects a seasonal recovery after the midterm elections, noting that stocks in a pre-midterm correction historically bottom around September 30th before rallying into October. He also argues that resolving the Iran conflict would resolve most of the market's near-term problems and spark a sharp rally.

Key arguments

Stocks during pre-midterm corrections historically bottom around September 30th, with recovery beginning in October
He expects a 9-10 month rally to follow the midterm elections, a pattern he says tends to occur
If the Iran war ended, stocks would rip higher, yields would plummet, and inflation expectations would fall

Counter-arguments acknowledged

AI hardware trade weakness and elevated debt levels remain ongoing headwinds
He is uncertain whether or when the Iran war will actually end

Hedges and caveats (from the video)

INVEST AT YOUR OWN RISK AND NEVER LISTEN TO ANYTHING SAID IN THESE VIDEOS AS FINANCIAL ADVICE. BECAUSE ITS NOT.
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