TSLABullpending
Michael TylerTarget Price
$500
“So, you know, if things go well, Tesla's a $500 stock by the end of September.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishMichael Tyler argues Tesla is at the front of a rotation from the AI hardware trade into robotics, automation, and AI software, positioning it for a major move higher as Wall Street begins to price in Optimus and robotaxi expansion. He believes Tesla could reach $500 by the end of September and $1,000 next year if macro conditions (Iran conflict resolution, inflation, jobs data) cooperate, while a pullback to $250 would represent a rare buying opportunity.
Key arguments
- Robotics, automation, AI software and cybersecurity are the 'next AI trade' and Tesla is the top dog in robotics
- Wall Street is underweight Tesla and hasn't rotated into the real-world AI theme yet
- Cybercab event and Optimus progress are near-term catalysts
- Tesla already rallied from $300 to the $360s recently, showing early rotation into the name
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If the Iran war worsens and oil keeps rising, it could pressure the broader market and delay Tesla's move higher
- A weak jobs report or hot inflation print could trigger a correction that affects Tesla along with the market
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Video includes explicit disclaimer: 'INVEST AT YOUR OWN RISK AND NEVER LISTEN TO ANYTHING SAID IN THESE VIDEOS AS FINANCIAL ADVISE'
- Tom Lee's previous August prediction of 7,900-8,000 S&P did not materialize
- Citadel Securities Scott Rubner presents contrarian cautious view with tactical reset recommendation
- Multiple risk factors acknowledged: inflation concerns, higher rates, higher oil prices, Middle East hostilities, AI trade volatility
- Prediction depends on sequence of economic data (jobs report, CPI, FOMC decision) confirming weakening inflation
The call
- Date said
- Sep 2, 2026
- Timeframe
- by the end of September
- Deadline
- Sep 30, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $348.75
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$121.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Specific price and clear near-term deadline add confidence, but the claim is explicitly conditioned on 'things going well' (macro conditions resolving favorably).
Source
If Tom Lee is Correct.. Tesla Stock will SKYROCKET.
Said on Sep 2, 2026Open on YouTube ↗