TubeRank
BTCBearpending
Stock MoeStock Moe

Target Range

$40,000$50,000

I said, "Look, he's selling until we get to the end of the crypto winter, which I still think will be in October, probably November, we're probably going to see Bitcoin test 40 to 50K.

Thesis at the time

Bearish

Stock Moe argues that Strategy (Michael Saylor's company) halting its Bitcoin purchases and now selling roughly $109 million worth removes a key source of price support, which he believes will push Bitcoin down toward the $40,000-$50,000 zone by the end of the crypto winter. He frames this as validating a call he made previously based on Saylor's own past comments about where BTC would trade without corporate buying.

Key arguments

  • Strategy sold $109 million of Bitcoin after a 7-week buying hiatus, removing a major source of demand support
  • Saylor previously stated BTC would trade much lower without Strategy's buying, and now they are selling instead of buying
  • Technical support at roughly $62,000 is key; a confirmed break sends price back into the $50s and potentially into the $40-50K zone

Counter-arguments acknowledged

  • Strategy could keep selling for a long time and the selling pressure might not immediately force capitulation

Hedges and caveats (from the video)

  • Creator acknowledges uncertainty about exact timing and price levels
  • Admits people have disagreed with bearish outlook
  • States 'I don't want to see that' regarding price decline
  • Relies on technical analysis which can be subjective
  • Video contains promotional links for paid memberships and trading platforms
  • Creator uses speculative language ('I'm concerned about', 'scary stuff')

The call

Date said
Aug 12, 2026
Timeframe
October, probably November
Deadline
Nov 30, 2026
Current price (live)
$86,972.51$41,972.51 above target
Confidence
medium
Specificity
specific

How it resolved

Status
pending

Confidence Reasoning

Direction and range are stated clearly and repeated, but hedged with 'I still think' and 'probably', reducing certainty.