METABearpending
Financial EducationTarget Price
$350
“I've been telling you guys like the worst case scenario Meta goes down to the 350 level. That's how if it really gets ugly, if the market really gets ugly and the story gets a lot worse for Meta over the next couple quarters, you could see 350 for the stock.”
Thesis at the time
MixedThe speaker is bearish on Meta in the short term due to ballooning capex, declining operating income, and legal expense risks, but remains bullish on the long-term story once Zuckerberg is forced to rein in spending. He expects the stock could fall further before capitulation occurs.
Key arguments
- Revenue grew 28% but income from operations fell 8%, indicating a spending problem
- Expense outlook raised to $165-169 billion including a $2.4 billion legal charge
- Believes real forward P/E is closer to 28-30 rather than the reported 18
- Thinks Zuckerberg won't moderate capex until the stock falls roughly 50% from highs
- Long-term bullish if buying at lower prices over 6-18 months
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Company could be sandbagging guidance and beat with higher revenue
- No guarantee the stock keeps falling to lower entry points
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Acknowledges significant market volatility and crashes in semiconductor stocks (down 25-85%)
- Discusses portfolio damage control during bearish periods
- Notes mixed market conditions with some stocks crashing while others rally
- References personal portfolio performance rather than guaranteed outcomes
The call
- Date said
- Jul 30, 2026
- Timeframe
- over the next couple quarters
- Price at prediction
- $585.61
- Current price (live)
- $736.60$386.60 above target
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Heavily hedged with multiple conditionals ('if it really gets ugly') and framed as a worst-case scenario rather than a base case.
Source
Im Going to LOAD THE BOAT on this Stock Now‼️
Said on Jul 30, 2026Open on YouTube ↗