LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$29.80
Said $2.98· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“if he says several then yeah anticipate more on the high end of $293 or 98 to be kind of the target”@ 4:34 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe speaker sees bullish signals in Lucid: shorts returned 589K shares before FOMC, Shaquille O'Neal customized a Lucid Air with a Superman emblem (positive celebrity marketing), and Lucid is above the super trend and 50-day moving average with algorithmic trading on its side. After the expected 25bps rate cut, the speaker sees Lucid targeting $2.81-$2.98.
Key arguments
- Shorts returning 589K shares before major event signals bulls gaining ground
- Shaquille O'Neal custom Lucid Air — celebrity endorsement helps visibility
- Lucid above 50-day moving average and super trend — algorithmic buying support
- Low volatility makes call options very cheap for bullish positioning
- 25bps rate cut already priced in — what Powell says about future cuts will be the real catalyst
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts increased 1.4M first thing in the morning — aggressive early suppression
- Stock considered 'very overbought' — first sign of weakness could cause volatility
The call
- Date said
- Dec 18, 2024
- Deadline
- Dec 18, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $25.30
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $25.30
- Return
- 0.0%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $29.8. Price: $25.30.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $29.8. Price: $25.30.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.