LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price
$17
“I did kind of forecast it for it to be between that 1650 to 1750 range general”@ 6:21 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishOn a day when the broader market rallied on China trade optimism, Lucid went red as institutions sold $6.66M net on $76.5M total turnover. The speaker calls this a 'slap in the face' and blames management for destroying investor trust over years of broken promises. Every time Lucid breaks below the 50-day MA for two consecutive days it falls 20–30%, putting $16.50–$17.50 as the target range.
Key arguments
- Lucid went red on a green macro day — institutions net sold $6.66M on $76.5M turnover
- Breaking below 50-day MA for 2nd consecutive day historically triggers 20–30% decline to $16.50–$17.50
- Reverse stock split brought zero institutional buying — thesis refuted conclusively
- Management trust is so damaged that any pullback triggers panic selling
- Speaker believes Mark Winterhoff being fired would cause the stock to go higher
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts returning 346K shares today — suggests the red day is not shorts' doing
- Product quality remains excellent — it is purely an execution/management problem
The call
- Date said
- Oct 27, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $18.10
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $16.64
- Return
- +8.1%
- Notes
- Target ≤$17 reached on 2025-11-03. Price: $16.64. Return: +8.1%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$17 reached on 2025-11-03. Price: $16.64. Return: +8.1%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.