LCIDBullunverifiable
Lucid City“if they do raise guidance that is going to also be a very good surprise catalyst so not only would that just raise the stock price by itself but that as well could really prompt a short squeeze”@ 5:33 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe speaker believes Lucid's Q2 earnings (slated for August 5) will be a home run based on CEO Faisal's interview indicating investors will be 'extremely happy' with year-end deliveries. With 2,100 produced and 2,300 delivered in H1 alone, Lucid is on track to significantly beat the 9,000 delivery target. A guidance raise would surprise the market and potentially trigger a short squeeze given that 27.83% of the float is short — the most heavily shorted EV in the market.
Key arguments
- CEO Faisal stated year-end investors will be 'extremely happy' with deliveries, strongly hinting at guidance beat
- H1 2024 already at 2,100 produced and 2,300 delivered — trajectory points to ~12,000 by year-end
- Q4 historically when Lucid 'wakes up' — prior Q4s showed significant production ramp
- 27.83% of float shorted — #1 most heavily shorted EV with better squeeze metrics than GameStop/AMC
- Back-to-back rate cut probability at 90.3% and 56.3% adds further upward pressure
- Options market shows 30% probability of $5.50+ by early August expiry
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Lucid could choose to simply far-exceed guidance at year-end rather than raise it mid-year
The call
- Date said
- Jul 13, 2024
- Deadline
- Aug 5, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $42.50
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.