TSLABearpending
Meet KevinTarget Price
$100
“I think the acquisition target is going to be like $100 a share for Tesla.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BearishKevin argues Elon is intentionally sandbagging Tesla's stock price to make it cheaper for SpaceX to eventually acquire it, and that a potential spin-off or sale of Giga Shanghai (contrary to Elon's 'fake news' denial) is a real possibility that would hurt Tesla's auto business and stock price. He believes Tesla's focus is shifting away from cars toward robotaxi and bot revenue, further weakening the core auto business.
Key arguments
- Elon has a history of calling true stories 'fake news' (Model 2 cancellation, xAI and SpaceX fundraising, his White House exit), so the Shanghai denial is likely also true.
- Elon is allegedly sandbagging Tesla stock intentionally to make a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla cheaper.
- Losing Giga Shanghai would remove roughly half of vehicle production capacity and associated FSD revenue.
- Tesla's focus is shifting from vehicles (discontinued Model S/X, doubts about Cybertruck longevity) toward Robotaxi and Optimus bot revenue.
- Tesla Shanghai has historically been one of the most profitable and highest-margin production facilities.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Losing Shanghai would hurt margins and auto profitability given it is historically one of the most profitable plants.
- A commenter argued the Tesla board would never approve a $100/share acquisition sale as unrealistic.
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Host acknowledges Elon's denials are technically about specific details being wrong
- Host states 'we're not trying to bag on Tesla or SpaceX'
- Host frames analysis as investor due diligence rather than criticism
- Past examples cited show pattern but don't guarantee current claim is true
- Transcript cuts off mid-sentence, potentially missing important context or caveats
The call
- Date said
- Jul 31, 2026
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$278.90 above target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Hedge language ('I think', 'like') softens an otherwise specific and repeatedly reiterated target tied to his broader sandbagging thesis.
Source
Elon's Denial that (Probably) Isn't FAKE NEWS
Said on Jul 31, 2026Open on YouTube ↗