LCIDBearpartial
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$10
Said $1· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“as a be case so my bear case is very similar to Polar Opposites based on this and analysts are honestly the exact same mentality it Loose it could go many many different directions and so in my opinion I think just given the lack of 2025 targets what Lucid most likely will do and just lack of catalyst I think $1 is realistic”@ 7:11 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedThe speaker's 2025 year-end prediction is bimodal: either $5-6 (bull case, if Gravity ramps to 22K+, a DOE loan alleviates dilution, and possible partnerships materialize) or $1 (bear case, if production targets disappoint and further dilution accelerates). There is no expected middle ground at $2.50-$4. Analyst consensus for 2025 production is ~22K vehicles implying $1.74B revenue, but real outcome could be 12-30K range.
Key arguments
- Bull case: $5-$6 year-end 2025 on ~22K deliveries, Gravity demand, DOE loan, and potential partnership revenue
- DOE loan (like Rivian's $6.6B) would significantly reduce dilution pressure if Lucid applied
- Gravity is the primary 2025 catalyst; lower-priced second variant expected late 2025 could also be bullish
- European expansion and UAE market deepening should support demand trajectory
- Analyst consensus is 22K production; speaker thinks 12-15K more realistic near-term
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Bear case: $1 if production disappoints, dilution continues, and NASDAQ deficiency triggers reverse split
- Management has been 100% wrong on every future financial forecast
- Cash burn of ~$1.4B expected in 2025 requires ongoing dilution or DOE loan
The call
- Date said
- Nov 28, 2024
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $21.80
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- partial
- Resolution price
- $10.57
- Return
- +51.5%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Moved 95% toward target $10. Price: $10.57.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Moved 95% toward target $10. Price: $10.57.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.