LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$27
“this is the LA wave technicals. So again, it's kind of signaling between that 2549 and 27.”@ 8:01 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishTwo catalysts are driving the day: a Caner Fitzgerald price target upgrade from $20 to $26, and a new interview with interim CEO Marc Winterhof confirming extension of the $7,500 tax credit through year-end and confirmation that Lucid will not enter the Chinese market. Breaking above the 50-day moving average for the first time today is historically significant, with Elliott Wave technicals pointing to $25.49-$27. A second consecutive close above the 50-day tomorrow would confirm the signal.
Key arguments
- Caner Fitzgerald raised target from $20 to $26
- Marc confirmed: extending $7,500 credit from Lucid's own pocket through year-end
- Marc confirmed: no China expansion — avoids cash burn in cutthroat market
- First day above 50-day moving average; needs second consecutive day to confirm signal
- Elliott Wave projects $25.49-$27 in the short term
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Analyst has skepticism about Andre Shepard's credibility — calls him a 'hype analyst'
- Extending $7,500 credit means Lucid loses that per vehicle, not good for profitability path
The call
- Date said
- Sep 24, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $22.98
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $11.63
- Return
- -49.4%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $27. Price: $11.63.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $27. Price: $11.63.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.