TSLABullunverifiable
Curious Pejjy“Q3 and Q4 guys are going to be awesome flipping quarters for Tesla.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishThe host argues Tesla is experiencing extremely high demand, with vehicles sold out across nearly every major market for 2026 due to FSD adoption and improved economic conditions. He believes this demand strength, combined with expanding FSD approval across Europe and the growing Cybercab fleet in Austin, sets up a strong Q3/Q4 for the company.
Key arguments
- Tesla is sold out for 2026 in the US and many other markets, with wait times stretching months in Canada, Europe, UK, Australia, and the Middle East
- FSD is the primary driver of demand, cited as roughly 90% of the reason people buy Teslas over other EVs
- Czech Republic became the 7th EU country to approve FSD, with expectations that most of Europe approves it soon after October 6th
- Cybercab fleet in Austin has grown to 69 vehicles with continued rapid expansion and production of a new drive unit every 10 seconds
- Tesla has consistently declined to license FSD to other automakers unless they can commit to millions of units, reinforcing its competitive moat
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Tariffs and Middle East conflict are headwinds that aren't helping demand
- Uncertainty remains about whether automakers partnering with Nvidia for autonomy could erode Tesla's FSD licensing leverage
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Acknowledges tariffs and Middle East conflict as headwinds
- Notes production ramp-up for new Y series will take time
- Mentions competition in China market
- References analyst estimates showing below 470,000 Q3 deliveries (implying potential miss vs. production capacity)
The call
- Date said
- Sep 23, 2026
- Timeframe
- Q3 and Q4
- Price at prediction
- $375.30
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Strong enthusiastic language ('awesome', 'excited') but no specific price target or hard timeframe deadline beyond the named quarters.