TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$717
“the share price is now at 717 for Tesla in 2025 this represents the fair future value based share price.”@ 16:37 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishThe updated DCF model with lower robotaxi risk yields an expected Tesla price of $11,600 by 2030, with annual fair-value ramp implying $717 in 2025 and $1,300 in 2026, driven primarily by Optimus scaling to a 1 billion per year run rate by 2039.
Key arguments
- Robotaxi technology risk lowered from 30% to 15% after FSD v13 progress.
- Political risk lowered from 15% to 5% given Trump administration posture.
- Optimus at $12K RaaS undercuts advanced-nation factory labor by 80%.
- Wall Street will be forced to adopt this methodology because public YouTube/X models keep being right.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- 2025-2027 ramp numbers are the decisive risk; failure to hit 100K robotaxis by 2028 would undermine the model.
- Optimus competition from China and Figure is higher risk than robotaxi.
The call
- Date said
- Jan 3, 2025
- Timeframe
- 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $410.44
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $449.72
- Return
- +9.6%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 13% progress toward target $717. Price: $449.72.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 13% progress toward target $717. Price: $449.72.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Stated as fair share price output from the updated model for 2025.