TSLABullpending
Curious PejjyTarget Price
$1,000
“There's a lot of people and some guys on X and YouTube saying that the stock price could reach a,000 bucks per share by 2026, end of 2026.”@ 18:49 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla is transitioning from a car company to a robotaxi and energy company, with robotaxi revenue expected to reach $1 billion in 2026. The current high PE ratio is justified by upcoming S-curves including robotaxis, FSD, and energy growth that will drive massive earnings expansion.
Key arguments
- Robotaxi revenue projected to reach $1 billion in 2026 from zero in 2025
- Energy business expected to grow 30-35% with $18 billion revenue and $5.5 billion gross profits
- FSD take rates increasing from 15% to 20% by Q4 2026
- Operating margin improvements from cost cuts and scaling
- Disconnect between current valuation and financials due to emerging S-curves
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Stock could go as low as $300 if macro environment deteriorates
- High PE ratio of 452 at target price may concern short-term investors
- Q1 traditionally soft quarter for automotive companies
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Creator explicitly states 'I'm not a financial adviser'
- Acknowledges 2025 price target of $575 was missed by ~20%
- Notes 2026 could be 'volatile' with stock potentially ranging from $300-$1,500
- States 'what I'm predicting here may not happen. It could be better or it could be worse'
- Admits previous prediction streak ended after only 2 years
- Acknowledges high PE ratio of ~400x as a valuation concern
- Creator has significant personal stake (1,500 shares) creating potential bias
The call
- Date said
- Jan 11, 2026
- Timeframe
- by end of 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $448.96
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$621.10 below target
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
YouTuber attributes this to 'other people' and explicitly states 'that's not my price target by the way'