TSLABullpending
Randy KirkTarget Price
$350
“I think uh next week everything being equal, no big scares or black swan events, probably going to take another shot at 350.”
Thesis at the time
BullishRandy Kirk frames Tesla as riding a broader AI-driven abundance wave, citing surging institutional ownership, AI/Grok compute demand tied to SpaceX, and progress on battery recycling technology. He expects a near-term bounce back toward $350 and a longer-term return to $500 as institutions keep accumulating shares.
Key arguments
- Institutional ownership hit an all-time high with 5,814 institutions holding shares while retail ownership fell to 15.8%
- AI demand and Grok/SpaceX compute growth are described as a major tailwind for the broader Musk ecosystem
- Tesla's lithium refinery recycling technology could extend closed-loop recovery to other critical minerals
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Prediction of a rebound to 350 is conditioned on no big scares or black swan events
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Not investment advice (stated in description)
- Predictions contingent on supply constraints (energy, chips, memory, permitting, batteries)
- SpaceX valuation assumes successful deployment of eight gigawatts of data center capacity
- Anthropic growth projections assume ability to secure sufficient compute resources
- Merger between Tesla and SpaceX is speculative
The call
- Date said
- Aug 15, 2026
- Timeframe
- next week
- Current price (live)
- $378.90✓ target met
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Hedged with 'probably' and a conditional caveat about no black swan events, though the price target and timeframe are specific.
Source
No Wonder Tesla Stock Is UP! Gavin Baker on Grok 4.6
Said on Aug 15, 2026Open on YouTube ↗