LCIDBullpending
Lucid CityTarget Price
$12
“I would rather pay more for Lucid at the let's say 12 145 $16 range if they can actually prove that they can do it.”
Thesis at the time
BearishLucid has fallen 60.4% from its October peak and is dangerously close to its all-time low of $9.50. Money flow shows institutions exiting, not buying. The speaker is personally not buying at current levels and would wait for operational confirmation at the $12-16 range — specifically 40,000+ unit guidance for 2026. Benchmark maintains a $30 price target but the stock needs to hit a home run earnings to justify it.
Key arguments
- Down 60.4% from October 6 peak, near all-time lows at $9.72
- Institutional money flow showing sellers dominating
- Speaker personally would not buy until $12-16 range with operational proof
- Shorts overextended at 34.02% short interest, DTC 6.19 days
- Benchmark maintains $30 price target — significant upside if earnings hit
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts not doubling down signals possible floor or earnings uncertainty
- Any positive earnings surprise like Rivian's 20%+ move is possible
The call
- Date said
- Feb 19, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $9.75
- Current price (live)
- $4.32$7.68 below target
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- pending